BMI Industry View

The outlook for the Iranian shipping sector is brighter than it has been in recent years, and we forecast a second consecutive year of growth at the primary container port of Bandar Abbas in 2015. The ongoing easing of sanctions - not least on the port operator itself - will boost throughput. We expect a significant easing of sanctions following a likely agreement in summer 2015. However, we note risk to our projections from the volatile price of oil in recent quarters. The general trend is that Brent crude will average considerably less than in recent years - we forecast and average of USD53 per barrel in 2015 - meaning that the economic boost from easing sanctions will be limited. Iranian consumers will continue to be under pressure, and a massive ramp up in containerised goods imports is unlikely.